{"id":20311,"date":"2025-01-18T13:05:45","date_gmt":"2025-01-18T13:05:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/usatoday.azontree.com\/?p=20311"},"modified":"2025-01-18T13:05:45","modified_gmt":"2025-01-18T13:05:45","slug":"jim-kubiak-heres-how-the-ravens-stopped-josh-allen-and-the-bills-and-how-the-bills-can-counterattack","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/usatoday.azontree.com\/?p=20311","title":{"rendered":"Jim Kubiak: Here’s how the Ravens stopped Josh Allen and the Bills \u2013 and how the Bills can counterattack"},"content":{"rendered":"
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As you might remember, the Baltimore Ravens bruised the Buffalo Bills, 35-10, when they met in Week 4 of the regular season Sept. 29 in Baltimore.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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At the time, the Bills were 3-0 and just beginning to develop their offense around a new set of players. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady was in the beginning stages of this process, tinkering with personnel groupings, formations and how to best use his talent.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The Bills have since acquired gifted receiver Amari Cooper, and their group of receivers, tight ends and running backs have developed into a Super Bowl contender. What’s more, their team culture shares and relishes the responsibility of winning games over anything else.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen throws during the first quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024, in Baltimore.<\/p>\n

Joshua Bessex\/Buffalo News<\/span><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

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In their Week 4 matchup, the Ravens rushed for 271 yards on 34 carries and averaged an astounding 8 yards per rush. They owned the advantage in time of possession as a result, 31:03 to 28:57, while each team committed a turnover.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Credit must go to the Ravens for their physically and emotionally charged effort that night in Baltimore.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The Bills’ loss provided a road map for what they will need to do to defeat the Ravens in their AFC divisional playoff game Sunday at Highmark Stadium.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In Week 4, the Bills rushed for just 81 yards on 23 carries \u2013 and if you take Josh Allen\u2019s runs out of the equation, the Bills rushed for just 60 yards on 18 carries.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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This means that Brady called running plays just 33% of the time. This lack of balance may have been partly because of the Ravens\u2019 early lead and the ease they had moving the football on the Bills\u2019 defense.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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This game was unlike the rest of the season in that the Bills’ offense achieved balance. Their rushing attempts (491) and rushing touchdowns (32) were nearly equal to their passing attempts (520) and passing touchdowns (30).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Brady called rushing plays roughly 491 times in the Bills’ 1,011 regular-season plays, which amounts to 48.6% of the time (last season, the Bills called runs 47% of the time). The rushing percentages were similar, but the potency and scoring frequency has shifted from Allen\u2019s arm and the passing game to the running game.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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This playoff game will be different. Brady and Allen have matured, and the offense itself has evolved and grown.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Should the Ravens jump into an early lead, don\u2019t expect Brady to get away from the run. In my opinion, the Bills are primed to rush the football on more than 50% of their plays, and they will sprinkle in designed Allen runs \u2013 something they shied away from in the beginning of the season.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Offensive coordinators protect their quarterbacks in various ways. One way is to limit quarterback runs, especially early in the season. But the playoffs are upon us, and there’s no tomorrow. Allen\u2019s ability to run the football is a serious weapon in this game and Brady will make sure the Ravens know it. Look for Allen to run more quarterback sweeps, powers and counters rather than sit in the pocket trying to decipher some of the Ravens’ crazy blitz schemes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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This is the time for Allen to run right at the defense with speed, power and resilience.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In Week 4, center Connor McGovern was taken out of the game in the first quarter and was replaced by Alec Anderson because of an undisclosed injury. Playing without McGovern affected Brady\u2019s play-calls that normally would have included Anderson in as a sixth offensive lineman.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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A second look at the Week 4 game revealed that the Bills were having success running the ball early in the game. There were times that the Buffalo offensive line was pushing the Ravens back and opening holes for Cook. The Ravens played to their reputation with a high level of physicality, and they finished their punishing tackles on Cook, Allen and receiver Khalil Shakir. The Bills should expect this again, which means the Bills’ offensive players must protect themselves and the football at all times.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The Bills also lacked efficiency on third down in Week 4. On these downs, the Ravens trapped, stunted and bluffed their defensive looks in a way that affected Allen\u2019s normal rhythms. The Ravens\u2019 creative blitz designs caused hesitation and movement on Allen\u2019s part, and those uncertainties affected his decision-making and accuracy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Here is a peek at how the Ravens affected the Bills\u2019 third-down efficiency.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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On an early third-and-2, the Ravens maintained a six-man box against the Bills’ empty formation. Allen was responsible for linebacker Roquan Smith. The Ravens initially made this appear to be a six-man blitz on their first two steps, but then they pulled off and rushed only three.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Now take a look at this:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Third-and-2: Empty six-man box, bull-rush, spy and rob<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n
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Third-and-2: Empty six-man box, bull-rush, spy and rob<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n
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This was a third-and-2 and another empty formation. The Ravens again had a six-man box and this time, they utilized a strong bull-rush to collapse the pocket around Allen while using Trenton Simpson to spy Allen and read his eyes. On this play, Allen initially wanted to throw the ball to tight end Dalton Kincaid, but Simpson slid that way. Allen had to wait for Kincaid to come across, and the adjustment caused an incomplete pass.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Third-and-7: Collapse and trap<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n
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Third-and-7: Collapse-and-trap technique<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n
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Here was yet another third down in which the Ravens used a different technique, this time a collapse-and-trap concept. The Ravens collapsed Allen\u2019s left side and then looped Smith to that same side, forcing force Allen to his right. Kyle Van Noy did not rush but was instead ready for Allen to scramble that way. Allen completed a quick throw for the first down on this play.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Third-and-7: Rotation and bracket; Josh Allen sacked<\/h2>\n
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Look at this third-and-7 that wasn\u2019t from the empty formation. The Ravens\u2019 used this dynamic rotation and then “bracketed” Shakir, double-teaming them.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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This is very high-level coordination, showing Allen one defensive alignment before the snap and then a shocking surprise after the snap.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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This caused havoc in Allen’s mind \u2013 and that was where the problems stemmed from in this game.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Brady must tactically adjust, perhaps using a hurry-up attack heading into third-down situations, thereby preventing the Ravens from this level of sophistication.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Based on these observations, I\u2019ve picked four categories that the Bills will need to control in order to move on to the AFC Championship:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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1. Running the football and stopping the run<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n
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The Ravens are a team built on running the football and stopping the run. The Bills must run the football successfully (130 yards or more) while keeping the Ravens under 166 yards rushing. Why?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u2022 The Ravens lost four of the six games in which they rushed for less than 166 yards.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u2022\u00a0The Bills lost just one of the nine games in which they rushed for more than 130 yards.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Advantage: Ravens<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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No team in the NFL rushed for more yards this season than the Ravens, who had 3,129 in all and an astounding 5.8 yards per attempt. But they also ranked No. 1 in the NFL against the run, giving up just 1,361 yards and just 3.6 yards per attempt.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The Ravens played only one game this season in which they didn\u2019t rush for 100 yards. That was when they beat the Bengals 35-34 … while rushing for 99 yds.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Amazingly, the Ravens have not been outrushed in a single game this season. Should the Bills outrush the Ravens, they should win.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The Bills were ninth in the NFL in rushing with 2,230 yards and 11th in yards per attempt (4.5). On defense, the Bills gave up 1,963 yards rushing (11th) at 4.5 yards per attempt (19th).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The Bills outrushed their opponents in 11 games, and they are 11-3 when they rush for more than 100 yards. But they are 4-1 when they don\u2019t meet the 100-yard rushing mark, and in the six games they were outrushed, the Bills were 4-2.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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2. Time of possession<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n
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Time-of-possession advantages are born from rushing success. Should the Bills win time of possession, it will likely be from their rushing effectiveness. Winning this category will minimize the Ravens\u2019 rushing attempts and perhaps force the Ravens to be more one-dimensional.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Advantage: Ravens<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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During the regular season, the Ravens had better time of possession in 11 games, only two of which they lost (vs. Philadelphia and Kansas City). In their other losses to the Browns, Raiders and Steelers, the Ravens had less time of possession than their opponent.<\/p>\n

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The Ravens have won only threw games in which they didn’t win time of possession.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The Bills won all eight games in which they had more time of possession.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In the nine games in which they time of possession, they were 5-4.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The weather for this game is expected to be bitterly cold, so field position and special teams will be a key factor. Look specifically for the punting units. Which team is able to put the opponent in long-field situations, and which team has the shorter field?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The Bills are first in the NFL in average starting position, and this will be a factor in who wins.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Turnover differential will also be key, as it almost always is.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Teams who win the turnover differential win the game about 80% of the time. Players like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson have the ability to overcome turnovers and mistakes, but one turnover in a game like this will likely be the difference.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Advantage: Bills<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The Bills are plus-26 in turnover differential, ranking first in the NFL.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The Bills won 11 games this season with a positive turnover differential and lost two \u2013 to the Texans in a tight game, and to the Patriots in a meaningless regular-season finale.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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They were 2-2 with an even turnover differential.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Incredibly, they did not have a single game in which they lost the differential.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The Ravens were 10th in turnover differential at plus-6.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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4. Third-down conversions<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n
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In Week 4, the Ravens did a superb job of creating third-down situations, and the Bills were 3 of 13 on third downs (23%).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The Bills’ offense will need to have success on early downs, limit their third-down situations and convert at a rate of at least 40%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Advantage: Ravens<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The Ravens ranked third in the NFL in third-down conversions with a 48.2% rate.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Curiously, their offense ranked 31st in third-down attempts (191), which means they have success on early downs and have attempted fewer third downs than most of the NFL. To gain perspective, the lowly Cleveland Browns led the NFL in third-down attempts (237).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The Bills offense ranked seventh in third-down conversions at 44.1%, and they ranked 26th in third-down attempts (202).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Conclusion<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n
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Simply put, the Bills will need to run the football successfully to win this game.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Expect Allen to shoulder some of this load \u2013 especially if Ray Davis, who is in concussion protocol, does not play.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Another major factor in the Bills\u2019 running performance will be the health of Anderson, who is dealing with a calf injury. Should the Bills be without Anderson, their sixth offensive lineman, perhaps fullback Reggie Gilliam or tight end Quintin Morris will be the extra blocker the Bills utilize in their heavy and jumbo personnel packages. This may create opportunities in play-action and could potentially add to the diversity in a power-rushing personnel package.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Rushing 50% of the time with success will lead to having better time of possession. Controlling the game in this way will force the Ravens\u2019 defense to be on the field longer, giving Allen more opportunities \u2013 and minimizing opportunities for Lamar Jackson.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The team that wins the turnover differential will likely win this game. It will be crucial for the Bills to protect the football on offensive and on special teams. Kick returner Brandon Codrington and his fill-in, Khalil Shakir, will need to protect the football on returns.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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I expect the Bills to use empty formations this week to run Allen, not necessarily to throw the ball.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In the pocket, Allen will need to be on time with progressions and protect the football with smart decisions. Quick and decisive passing concepts will be more effective than trying to read and react to the Ravens\u2019 difficult defensive schemes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Here’s the bottom line: Rushing well and early-down success will keep the Bills\u2019 offense out of tricky third downs. Should the Bills hit their marks for rushing, time of possession and turnover differential, they will likely move on to the AFC Championship.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The Bills have what it takes to beat the Ravens in every phase. Don\u2019t let their lopsided Week 4 loss dampen your spirits. The Bills have grown significantly since then, and they have answers they didn\u2019t have earlier in the year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As you might remember, the Baltimore Ravens bruised the Buffalo Bills, 35-10, when they met in Week 4 of the regular season Sept. 29 in Baltimore. 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