Alex Bregman is one of the more interesting free agents left on the market this winter. Jon Heyman of the New York Post predicts he’ll sign a contract worth $170 million, which is more than the reported contract that the Houston Astros have offered him but less than the reported $200 million he wants.

Bregman recently emerged as a key free agent target of the New York Yankees after they missed out on free agent superstar Juan Soto. All signs point to this free agent sweepstakes coming down to Houston and New York, much like the American League Championship Series did in 2017, 2019, and 2022.

FanSided’s Michael Brakebill recently predicted Houston would re-sign Bregman this winter, despite a recent trade that brought an All-Star third baseman to Houston.

“Predicting where Alex Bregman ends up is one of the more difficult tasks this winter. After the Houston Astros traded for Isaac Parades, the door appeared shut on a reunion with the long-time fan favorite. Or, it could have been a genius leverage play on behalf of Jim Crane,” Brakebill wrote. “It seems that teams are not set to pay Bregman the closer to $200 million price tag he is seeking, mainly because the big market teams outside of Houston don’t desperately need a third baseman.”

While an Astros reunion could still make sense, I feel like trading for Isaac Paredes is Houston’s way of waving the white flag in this free-agency race. Whether it’s the aforementioned Yankees or a team like the Detroit Tigers, Bregman is likely to go where the money is the best.

If he was going to re-sign with Houston, he likely would have done so by now. Houston has emerged as a potential suitor for St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado in a blockbuster trade as well. All signs point to the Astros losing out on Bregman, despite Brakebill’s educated prediction.