As the festive atmosphere of Christmas Day wrapped up in the NFL, the Kansas City Chiefs secured the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs for the fourth time in the past seven seasons, showcasing their consistent powerhouse status. Meanwhile, across the sunshine state, the Miami Dolphins watched with bated breath as their slim chances for postseason play took a significant hit.
The Dolphins, whose fate is intertwined with a myriad of scenarios, need a bit of magic to sneak into the playoff picture. Unfortunately for them, one of their necessary scenarios goes through the Denver Broncos, a team slated to face those very Chiefs in their season finale.
Now, the Chiefs, having already clinched their playoff berth, may approach their final game against Denver with a different mindset. Typically, with a No. 1 seed already locked up, key players like Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce could find themselves resting rather than tussling on the field. History tells us that when teams have nothing to gain standings-wise, they play it safe and give their stars a breather.
To put this into perspective, one only needs to glance back at recent seasons. The Chiefs’ victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers cemented them as the seventh squad in the last seven years to secure the top AFC seed before the final regular-season game.
Notably, only the 2021 Green Bay Packers, led by Aaron Rodgers, decided to stick with their starting quarterback for their last game after sealing the No. 1 seed early. And for those teams, a noticeable trend emerges: a final week won-loss record of 1-7.
The sole exception was the 2019 Baltimore Ravens’ win under Robert Griffin III, while Lamar Jackson watched from the sidelines.
Kansas City has seen this script before. In 2020, when they clinched their spot early, stars like Mahomes, Tyrann Mathieu, and Tyreek Hill took a seat in the final game. A similar strategy was employed by other teams, like the 2018 New Orleans Saints with Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara resting up.
But the pressing issue for the Dolphins isn’t only about who suits up for the Chiefs-Broncos clash. It’s the cascading effect of potential outcomes. For Miami to have a shot at the playoffs, two out of three specific results must break their way:
- Denver needs to drop its final two games.
- The Los Angeles Chargers must lose both against New England and Las Vegas.
- The Indianapolis Colts need to lose at least one of their remaining matches against the New York Giants or at home against Jacksonville.
While Coach Andy Reid holds the keys to Kansas City’s lineup card against Denver, the historical evidence of resting top-tier players suggests a continued preference for caution as they look beyond the regular season. For now, though, Dolphins fans will keep a keen eye on out-of-town scoreboards, hoping the football gods sprinkle a bit of postseason luck in their direction.
