Shawn Hubbard/Baltimore Ravens Photos
TE Mark Andrews
Christmas couldn’t have gone much better for the Ravens.
After the Steelers were walloped by the Chiefs in the early game, the Ravens blew out the Houston Texans, 31-2, to take control of the AFC North heading into Week 18.
Baltimore (11-5) now has a one-game lead over Pittsburgh (10-6) in the division race and can clinch the division with a home win over the Browns (3-12) in the regular-season finale or Steelers loss to the Bengals (7-8).
The Ravens, who trailed the AFC North by two games a week and a half ago, now have an 88% chance to win the division, according to ESPN, and NextGenStats (NGS) gives them a 92% shot.
The Ravens lost to the Browns earlier this season, 29-24, and the Steelers beat the Bengals, 44-38. So Baltimore has to take care of business to seal its second straight division crown.
The Ravens’ Christmas Day win over the Texans (9-7) guarantees they’re at-worst the No. 3 seed in the AFC if they win the division. Baltimore can still earn the No. 2 seed (5% chance, per NGS) if the Buffalo Bills lose out (vs. Jets, at Patriots) and the Ravens win in Week 18.
If the Ravens get the No. 3 seed, their most likely Wild Card opponent would be the Los Angeles Chargers and another HarBowl. The Chargers (9-6) are in the playoffs if they win in New England this weekend.
The Chargers currently sit in the No. 6 seed with the Denver Broncos (9-6) in the No. 7 spot because the Bolts have a head-to-head tiebreaker over them. The Chargers’ final two games are at New England (3-12) and at Las Vegas (3-12). The Chargers can rise to the No. 5 seed if they win their final two games and Pittsburgh loses in Week 18 to Cincinnati.
Next Gen Stats gives the Chargers a 58% shot of getting the No. 6 seed. However, the Steelers (23%) and Broncos (16%) both have decent odds of landing in that spot as well.
If the Ravens don’t win the division, they’re locked into the No. 5 seed, which would mean a return trip to Houston in the Wild Card round.
After starting the season 0-2 and chasing the Steelers for most of the season, Baltimore is in control heading into the final game.
