Yankees’ risk on Paul Goldschmidt comes with upside, glaring reasons for concern
In Paul Goldschmidt, the Yankees brought in a seven-time All-Star just a few seasons removed from being the NL MVP.
He also is coming off the worst season of his life, one in which he trended down virtually everywhere.
In Goldschmidt, the Yankees have added a first baseman who has won four Gold Gloves, but none since 2021, and the 37-year-old does not have the range he once boasted.
In Goldschmidt, the Yankees have landed a hitting savant who might end up in the Hall of Fame, but how soon will he be eligible?
As has become customary, the Yankees took a swing at an aging veteran whose best days are behind him but who might have some good days left.
Let’s take a look at Goldschmidt’s 2024 season to try to glean whether he will be more Matt Carpenter or Troy Tulowitzki.
The mostly good
In his final season with the Cardinals, the 14-year veteran was miserable for nearly four months (holding a .665 OPS on July 27) and strong for the final two months (.818 OPS in his final 54 games).
Throughout a polarized season, though, he hit the ball hard.
According to FanGraphs, 40 percent of his batted balls registered at least 95 mph, which was good for 15th among qualified hitters (No. 16 was Bryce Harper).
His final two months of the season earned the $12.5 million contract with the Yankees that has yet to be announced.
In significant ways during those two months, he rebounded.
His strikeout rate fell from 28.7 percent to 22.1 percent; his slugging percentage soared from .379 to .486; his average jumped from .227 to .283.
Goldschmidt’s year-end numbers — a .716 OPS with 22 home runs, 65 RBIs and 11 steals — are not overwhelming, but consider the Yankees’ 2024 first basemen.
The group’s collective .602 OPS was the worst in baseball among that positional group by plenty.
Sure, the Yankees will hope for more, but they would not complain if Goldschmidt is roughly the league-average hitter he finished as last season.
There is hope the fit — both in the Stadium and in the lineup — can produce something more.
Goldschmidt pulled more balls than he usually does last season, but he is known as a slugger who will use all fields.
Among all qualified hitters in the past two years, Goldschmidt has sent batted balls to the right side 28.9 percent of the time — the 13th highest in baseball.
He is capable of visiting the short porch (and owns a 1.192 OPS in six lifetime games in The Bronx).
Statcast estimates that Goldschmidt would have smacked three additional home runs last season if all his games were played at the Stadium.
Cody Bellinger, as a pull-happy lefty swinger, is an ideal traditional fit for the Yankees.
Goldschmidt, as an all-fields-hitting righty, might be an ideal fit for the 2025 Yankees.
The Yankees, whose OPS was more than 50 points worse against southpaws than opposing right-handers last season, have needed a lefty killer, and even a diminished Goldschmidt kills lefties (.839 OPS last season).
If Goldschmidt struggles against righties, he and Ben Rice could form a potent platoon.
The mostly bad
Oftentimes, the proverbial lost step at the plate shows up in peripheral numbers such as strikeout percentage, walk percentage and chase percentage.
In each, Goldschmidt’s 2024 campaign sent up warning flags.
Here are his strikeout percentages over the past five seasons: 18.6, 20.0, 21.7, 23.4, 26.5.
Even when he bounced back late in the year, he still was whiffing plenty.
In 2024, he walked a career-worst 7.2 percent of the time, which explained his career-worst .302 on-base percentage.
One of the more disciplined hitters in baseball swung at a career-worst 29.5 percent of pitches that were out of the strike zone, which often is a signal that a hitter knows his bat speed has slipped and must begin his swing earlier than usual (and before he is certain if the pitch will be a strike).
Another possible sign that a bat is no longer moving as quickly is a hitter unable to get around on a hard fastball.
Last season, Goldschmidt batted .230 with a .685 OPS against pitches that were 95 mph or faster.
As the speed escalates, all hitters get worse, but he went just 2-for-24 (.083) against pitches that registered at least 98 mph.
In 2023 against such fastballs, Goldschmidt went 9-for-27 (.333).
While he almost certainly will outperform the Yankees’ first basemen from last season, the better comparison might be the first basemen the club did not reel in this winter.
Christian Walker signed with the Astros and Carlos Santana with the Guardians, who sent Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks, while Nathaniel Lowe was shipped from Texas to Washington.
Still on the board is Pete Alonso.
If Goldschmidt is more Tulowitzki than Carpenter, the Yankees and their fans would remember the generally less risky bats who were available.
