Novak Djokovic is heading into the Australian Open with new optimism as he targets his 25th Grand Slam title in Melbourne, but he will face a slide down the ATP Rankings if his recent trend in form continues.
Djokovic is keen to land another major title before he retires from tennis, as he is currently tied with Margaret Court for the all-time record of Grand Slams in tennis history.
His move to recruit former rival Andy Murray to work as his coach in Melbourne confirms he is trying everything possible to win another major, but his recent form suggests that will be a tough task.
The Serbian failed to win a Grand Slam title in 2024, as young guns Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz shared the majors between them.
Djokovic claimed Olympic gold at the Paris Olympic Games after a thrilling win against Alcaraz in the final, but he openly admitted his motivation to continue in the sport is waning at the age of 37.
He has also hinted that he will continue to play a reduced tournament schedule, which will ensure most of his ranking points are collected in a small number of events.
If he goes out early in those tournaments, his ranking will collapse quickly and that is a threat he is facing at the Australian Open.
Djokovic was beaten by Sinner in the semi-finals in Melbourne last January and if he goes out of the tournament earlier this time, he will lose ranking points.
He was dumped out of the US Open by Australia’s Alexei Popyrin in the third round back in August and if he faces a similarly early exit in Melbourne, he may drop out of the top ten of the ATP Rankings.
That could mean he would be outside the top eight seeds for the French Open and Wimbledon in the European summer, which would open up the prospect of playing top-seeded rivals like Sinner, Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev as early as the fourth round.
Former Wimbledon champion Pat Cash spoke to Tennis365 last month about Djokovic’s reduced schedule plan and he suggested it may not be sustainable.
“Older players fall into this trap every time that they are trying to save their body and they don’t always get a good balance on playing enough matches,” Cash told Tennis365.
“You tend to see older players start to lose five-set matches or have more bad days and that’s natural.
“That’s match toughness. I know Novak has played a lot of matches over the course of his career, but he still needs to be match-tough going into a best-of-five-set Grand Slam tournament.
“We often say you can’t afford to get into tough five-set matches in the first week of a Slam as you need to stay fresh and that’s especially true when you get older.
“If you don’t have enough matches under your belt and you play a long one early on, I tell you what, you are going to be so sore.
“Andy has had a lot of injuries, but he always tried to play a lot of tournaments through to the end of his career and for me, that’s the big secret for Novak in the next year. If he can get his schedule right and make sure he has the right number of matches under his belt, he can win again.”
