As you might remember, the Baltimore Ravens bruised the Buffalo Bills, 35-10, when they met in Week 4 of the regular season Sept. 29 in Baltimore.
At the time, the Bills were 3-0 and just beginning to develop their offense around a new set of players. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady was in the beginning stages of this process, tinkering with personnel groupings, formations and how to best use his talent.
The Bills have since acquired gifted receiver Amari Cooper, and their group of receivers, tight ends and running backs have developed into a Super Bowl contender. What’s more, their team culture shares and relishes the responsibility of winning games over anything else.
In their Week 4 matchup, the Ravens rushed for 271 yards on 34 carries and averaged an astounding 8 yards per rush. They owned the advantage in time of possession as a result, 31:03 to 28:57, while each team committed a turnover.
Credit must go to the Ravens for their physically and emotionally charged effort that night in Baltimore.
The Bills’ loss provided a road map for what they will need to do to defeat the Ravens in their AFC divisional playoff game Sunday at Highmark Stadium.
In Week 4, the Bills rushed for just 81 yards on 23 carries – and if you take Josh Allen’s runs out of the equation, the Bills rushed for just 60 yards on 18 carries.
This means that Brady called running plays just 33% of the time. This lack of balance may have been partly because of the Ravens’ early lead and the ease they had moving the football on the Bills’ defense.
This game was unlike the rest of the season in that the Bills’ offense achieved balance. Their rushing attempts (491) and rushing touchdowns (32) were nearly equal to their passing attempts (520) and passing touchdowns (30).
Brady called rushing plays roughly 491 times in the Bills’ 1,011 regular-season plays, which amounts to 48.6% of the time (last season, the Bills called runs 47% of the time). The rushing percentages were similar, but the potency and scoring frequency has shifted from Allen’s arm and the passing game to the running game.
This playoff game will be different. Brady and Allen have matured, and the offense itself has evolved and grown.
Should the Ravens jump into an early lead, don’t expect Brady to get away from the run. In my opinion, the Bills are primed to rush the football on more than 50% of their plays, and they will sprinkle in designed Allen runs – something they shied away from in the beginning of the season.
Offensive coordinators protect their quarterbacks in various ways. One way is to limit quarterback runs, especially early in the season. But the playoffs are upon us, and there’s no tomorrow. Allen’s ability to run the football is a serious weapon in this game and Brady will make sure the Ravens know it. Look for Allen to run more quarterback sweeps, powers and counters rather than sit in the pocket trying to decipher some of the Ravens’ crazy blitz schemes.
This is the time for Allen to run right at the defense with speed, power and resilience.
In Week 4, center Connor McGovern was taken out of the game in the first quarter and was replaced by Alec Anderson because of an undisclosed injury. Playing without McGovern affected Brady’s play-calls that normally would have included Anderson in as a sixth offensive lineman.
A second look at the Week 4 game revealed that the Bills were having success running the ball early in the game. There were times that the Buffalo offensive line was pushing the Ravens back and opening holes for Cook. The Ravens played to their reputation with a high level of physicality, and they finished their punishing tackles on Cook, Allen and receiver Khalil Shakir. The Bills should expect this again, which means the Bills’ offensive players must protect themselves and the football at all times.
The Bills also lacked efficiency on third down in Week 4. On these downs, the Ravens trapped, stunted and bluffed their defensive looks in a way that affected Allen’s normal rhythms. The Ravens’ creative blitz designs caused hesitation and movement on Allen’s part, and those uncertainties affected his decision-making and accuracy.
Here is a peek at how the Ravens affected the Bills’ third-down efficiency.
On an early third-and-2, the Ravens maintained a six-man box against the Bills’ empty formation. Allen was responsible for linebacker Roquan Smith. The Ravens initially made this appear to be a six-man blitz on their first two steps, but then they pulled off and rushed only three.
Now take a look at this:
Third-and-2: Empty six-man box, bull-rush, spy and rob
This was a third-and-2 and another empty formation. The Ravens again had a six-man box and this time, they utilized a strong bull-rush to collapse the pocket around Allen while using Trenton Simpson to spy Allen and read his eyes. On this play, Allen initially wanted to throw the ball to tight end Dalton Kincaid, but Simpson slid that way. Allen had to wait for Kincaid to come across, and the adjustment caused an incomplete pass.
Third-and-7: Collapse and trap
Here was yet another third down in which the Ravens used a different technique, this time a collapse-and-trap concept. The Ravens collapsed Allen’s left side and then looped Smith to that same side, forcing force Allen to his right. Kyle Van Noy did not rush but was instead ready for Allen to scramble that way. Allen completed a quick throw for the first down on this play.
Third-and-7: Rotation and bracket; Josh Allen sacked
Look at this third-and-7 that wasn’t from the empty formation. The Ravens’ used this dynamic rotation and then “bracketed” Shakir, double-teaming them.
This is very high-level coordination, showing Allen one defensive alignment before the snap and then a shocking surprise after the snap.
This caused havoc in Allen’s mind – and that was where the problems stemmed from in this game.
Brady must tactically adjust, perhaps using a hurry-up attack heading into third-down situations, thereby preventing the Ravens from this level of sophistication.
Based on these observations, I’ve picked four categories that the Bills will need to control in order to move on to the AFC Championship:
1. Running the football and stopping the run
The Ravens are a team built on running the football and stopping the run. The Bills must run the football successfully (130 yards or more) while keeping the Ravens under 166 yards rushing. Why?
• The Ravens lost four of the six games in which they rushed for less than 166 yards.
• The Bills lost just one of the nine games in which they rushed for more than 130 yards.
