Know why baseball lifers always say, “There’s no such thing as a bad one year contract?” It’s because that year goes by really, really fast.
It’s hardly been a week since we first saw Walker Buehler don a Boston Red Sox uniform. But before we know it, he’ll be putting the finishes on his first, and for all we know, only season with his brand-new team.
Buehler has already said on multiple occasions that he’d love to stay in Boston beyond the 2025 season if things go well. Now that he’s a year removed from his Tommy John surgery rehab, he’ll look to make himself a lot more than the $21.05 million he got from the Red Sox in December.
Whether the Red Sox wind up keeping Buehler long-term will come down to performance and money. Is he closer to the guy he was as a two-time All-Star, or the guy that put up a 5.38 ERA last season? And to what degree is Boston willing to reward him?
On Wednesday, one baseball writer took an early stab at projecting Buehler’s next contract. CBS Sports’ R.J. Anderson tabbed the 30-year-old for a four-year, $115 million contract, which might be a bit uncomfortable for the Red Sox to pay.
“Buehler snagged what amounted to the qualifying offer (one year, $21 million) last offseason after an abysmal regular season,” Anderson wrote. “Now, imagine his market if he goes out there this year and performs like it’s 2019 or 2021?
“I think it’s fair to write that Buehler has the widest error bars of anyone on here. Perhaps I’m too sweet on his chances of delivering, but I think the Tyler Glasnow extension (four years, $111.6 million) may serve as a decent template. Prediction: Four years, $115 million ($28.75 million AAV).”
There’s no doubt about the fact that the Red Sox have been gun-shy about starting pitching contracts, dating back to the five-year Chris Sale extension back in 2019 that went awry. A $28.75 million average annual value would also be the second-highest the Red Sox have ever handed out, behind David Price’s $31 million.
It’s also worth noting that Buehler has a $25 million mutual option for next season, so he’s not guaranteed to become a free agent. However, mutual options are virtually never accepted by both sides, because performance will often dictate that it’s either a great or terrible one-year contract.
Of course, it’s early, and a lot of things can change. One thing is for certain: it will benefit both sides of the transaction for Buehler to prove early on that the 2024 regular season is already far in the past.
