Sports Mole previews Sunday’s Miami Open third-round match between Novak Djokovic and Camilo Ugo Carabelli, including predictions and form.

Novak Djokovic and Camilo Ugo Carabelli will meet on the ATP tour for the first time on Sunday with a place in the last 16 of the Miami Open at stake.

On Friday, Djokovic outsted Rinky Hijikata in straight sets 6-0 7-6 (7-1), while Carabelli upset American Alex Michelsen 6-7 (3-7) 7-5 3-6 to keep his magical run going.

Match preview

© Imago

Djokovic’s quest for a record seventh Miami Open title began positively this week, as his agility and power helped him fend off his Australian opponent, who made it difficult for the 24-time Grand Slam winner in the second set.

In his opening match, Djokovic had a first serve percentage of 80 while winning 85% of his first serves and 89% of his second ones.

The 37-year-old has not been eliminated before the round of 16 at this tournament since 2018, when Frenchman Benoit Paire upset him 6-3 6-4.

Since qualifying for the last 16 of the Australian Open in January, Djokovic has not made it beyond the round of 32 in a singles event, losing at this stage of the Qatar Open last month to Matteo Berrettini in straight sets.

This year, the Belgrade native has saved 67% of his break points and hit 99 aces in 144 service games played on hard court surfaces.

He has won 74% of her first serve points on the hard court this year and 88% of his service games, while also winning 88% of his total service points.

© Imago

Fresh off back-to-back semi-final appearances, Camilo Ugo Carabelli will be playing in the match of his life this weekend, seeking his first-ever triumph against a top 10 player.

The 25-year-old Argentine won 71% of his first serves in the round of 64 and overcame the 10 aces that Michelsen fired against him to win.

Carabelli made the most of his break-point opportunities on Friday, going three for three in that department as he came on strong once again in the third set.

On Friday, he claimed his fourth successive victory over an American at the Miami Open this year, with Carabelli winning in three sets on each of those occasions.

So far in this tournament, he has shown plenty of resilience, coming from behind to win his last three matches despite losing the opening set, as he is quickly becoming the Cinderella story of this competition.

While he has never faced a player with the stature and quality of Djokovic, the Rosario Challenge Tour winner has won four of his last five round of 32 singles matches, defeating Chilean Nicolas Jarry at the Santiago Open in late February.

Tournament so far

Novak Djokovic:

First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Rinky Hijikata 6-0 7-6 (7-1)

Camilo Ugo Carabelli:

First round: vs.Brandon Holt 2-6 7-6 (7-5) 6-4
Second round: vs Alex Michelsen 6-7 (3-7) 7-5 6-3

We say: Djokovic to win in two sets

Even if Carabelli plays a near perfect match, it would likely not be enough for him to upset a player as savvy and agile as Djokovic, who still displays incredible power and accuracy, particularly when on serve.

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