The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles are longtime rivals in the American League East. Each has won the division 10 times since Major League Baseball split each league into two divisions in 1969, and then three in 1994. In head-to-head play, the Red Sox have had the better off the matchup since divisional play began, winning 480 games to 389 for Baltimore.
Heading into 2025, both teams had high expectations. The Orioles were coming off two straight years in which they made the postseason, after a six-year dry spell. In 2023, the Orioles captured the AL East pennant with 101 wins, the highest total for the franchise since 1979 a year that Baltimore got to the World Series only to lose in seven games to the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Red Sox have been in a down period for the past three years, failing to finish above .500 each season. But after their most active offseason since 2018, experts widely picked the Red Sox to win the division this year, or at least make the playoffs as a Wild Card — and even to get into the World Series.
Orioles Starting Staff Has Been a Disaster
So far, neither squad is exactly tearing up the league, as the season nears the conclusion of its fourth week. The Red Sox have done better, with a 13-11 record and winning six of their last eight games prior to Tuesday’s matchup at Fenway Park against the Seattle Mariners.
The Orioles have struggled far more mightily so far, winning nine and losing 12 before Tuesday’s MLB action. The problem for the Orioles has not been their hitting. With a team OPS of .721, Baltimore ranks fourth in the AL and 10th overall in MLB.
The Orioles’ pitching has been another story completely — the starting rotation especially. Baltimore starters sit dead last in the Majors with a bloated ERA of 6.11. As an entire staff, the Orioles also rank at the bottom of MLB’s 30 teams, with a staff ERA of 5.43.
“Their combined 15.4 percent strikeout rate is also last in the majors, as is their 7.9 percent swinging-strike rate,” wrote statistical analyst Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors. “No team’s rotation has allowed home runs at a higher rate than the Orioles’ 1.86 HR/9, and only two have yielded higher marks in terms of average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.”
Red Sox starters have been better, placing a respectable 10th in ERA at 3.75. Boston’s offense has also been solid with an MLB 10th-best OPS of .720. Their run rate of 4.50 per game is 10th best in the Majors as well, fourth in the AL.
Red Sox Have Big Need Behind the Plate
But the Red Sox have one serious need — a catcher. Regular starter Connor Wong remains injured with a broken finger and managed just two hits in 26 plate appearances before heading to the IL. Backup Carlos Narvaez has scraped together only a .594 OPS, and third-stringer Blake Sabol has been even more inconsequential with two hits in 11 plate appearances.
The organization’s catching pipeline offers very little after they traded their top prospect at the position, Kyle Teel, to the Chicago White Sox as part of a package that brought back lefty ace Garrett Crochet.
The Red Sox have a starting pitcher to give, especially with the return of Bryan Bello from injury on Tuesday. That pitcher would be 2024 All-Star righty Tanner Houck. The 28-year-old who was drafted by the Red Sox in the 2017 first round, 24th overall, has failed regain the form that earned him his All-Star bid last season — but is still considered a potentially valuable mid-rotation starter.
What do the Orioles have to offer, if they wanted to extract Houck from the Red Sox? As it happens, their organizational No. 1 prospect is a catcher. Samuel Basallo, 20 years old, was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2021 for what was then an Orioles-record signing bonus of $1.3 million.
Pitcher-For-Catcher Trade On Deck For AL East Rivals?
MLB Pipeline rates Basallo as the 12th-best prospect in baseball overall. But his path to the big leagues is blocked on the Orioles by 2019 first-round draft pick Adley Rutschman, who is already a two-time All-Star in his just his fourth big league season.
MLB Pipeline projects that Basallo could be ready for the big leagues and called up in 2025 — but it likely will not happen in Baltimore. In Boston with the Red Sox’ catching woes, there is a good chance that it would.
A straight up swap of Houck — who will earn a reasonable $3.95 million this year with two more seasons of team control — for the highly ranked prospect Basallo would serve the needs of both the Red Sox and the Orioles.
Who says no?
