After a slow finish to the 2024 campaign, ESPN’s Mike Clay doesn’t expect T.J. Watt to return to his normal rate of production next season for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

In his projection guide for 2025, Clay has Watt closing out the year with 60 tackles, 10.1 sacks and 0.2 interceptions over 914 snaps.

It goes without saying that he can’t finish with one-fifth of an interception or one-tenth of a sack, but Clay’s system is more so used to paint a picture of the range in which Watt will finish in those respective stats.

Pittsburgh’s star edge rusher finished fourth in AP Defensive Player of the Year voting last year, though he did not record a forced fumble or sack in four of his final five games despite leading the league in the former category with six and tallying 11.5 in the latter.

If Clay’s evaluation of Watt proves to be accurate, he’d finish with his fewest quarterback takedowns during a season in which he played over 10 games outside of his rookie campaign in 2017.

Furthermore, Clay’s projections have Watt picking up a sack every 90.495 snaps, which would result in the third-worst rate of his career up to this point.

His tackle total of 60 would also be his lowest in a year in which he suits up for over 10 games since 2020.

Watt remains one of the league’s most feared defenders, though at 30-years-old, he may continue trending downward as opposed to reaching the same heights he did when winning Defensive Player of the Year in 2021 or being named a first-team All-Pro four times over a five-year span from 2019 to 2023.

The Steelers have yet to resolve his contract situation as he enters the final year of his current agreement, and it remains to be seen if they give him a market-setting deal that would surpass Myles Garrett of the Cleveland Browns’ pact while paying him over $40 million per season.