As Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani gets closer to facing live hitters off a mound, the question that followed him every year in Anaheim has resurfaced in Los Angeles: Should he pitch at all?
Former Colorado Rockies outfielder and current broadcaster Ryan Spilborghs was the latest to raise the question on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM Wednesday.
“It’s not worth it with the offensive numbers Shohei Ohtani is putting up” to have him pitch, Spilborghs said. “Last year he had a 1.036 OPS. This year he’s at 1.073. Those numbers are only going to go down once he starts pitching.”
Even though the Dodgers rank second in the National League in runs per game (5.68 through Wednesday), Spilborghs believes the Dodgers aren’t well-positioned to absorb a decrease in Ohtani’s offensive production.
“The production level for (the Dodgers), just judging by the way the offense is currently operating … the bottom of the lineup has been a big struggle,” Spilborghs continued.
Even if Ohtani’s elbow holds up, Spilborghs went on to suggest that pitching invites the possibility of soft tissue injuries that could hinder him as a hitter as well.
A veteran of seven big league seasons, Spilborghs’ comments come a week after Barry Bloom made essentially the same case for Sportico.
For all the reasoning behind the argument, two competing factors are worth considering about Ohtani’s future.
First and foremost, the Dodgers did not sign Ohtani to a then-record $700 million, 10-year contract if they only intended him to be their designated hitter for a decade.
The Dodgers’ caution in bringing Ohtani back slowly from the internal brace surgery on his right elbow is a measure of protecting their largest investment. If Ohtani can’t replicate his pre-surgery form, it’s unlikely the Dodgers’ front office would allow him to risk an injury on the mound.
If Ohtani can return to form, it’s a form that yielded a 38-19 record and 3.01 ERA in 86 starts for the Angels from 2018-23. Why not add that level of production to a starting rotation that’s missing Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, and Roki Sasaki?
Nor should it be assumed that Ohtani’s batting stats will regress. According to FanGraphs, only 20 batters in MLB (through Wednesday) had a more negative differential between their expected weighted on-base average and their actual wOBA.
Ohtani’s quality of contact suggests he should have an astronomical .486 wOBA, much closer to Aaron Judge’s MLB-leading .517 wOBA. His actual wOBA is .437 — still second in the National League behind only teammate Freddie Freeman.
The best could be yet to come this season for Ohtani, both at the plate and on the mound.
