Juan Soto is the most intriguing name on the free agent market this offseason. In fact, he’ll likely be the most intriguing name on the free agent market between now and the end of the decade. Soto is a generational talent who already knows how to handle himself in high leverage situations better than 99% of league, and he’s entering the free agent market before his age-26 season. His profile is nothing short of incredible!

As a result, his free agency campaign has rightfully sucked up most of the oxygen in hot stove circles so far this offseason. But last night, something important happened. The Los Angeles Dodgers swooped in and grabbed Blake Snell off the market, and this, as they say, changes everything.

We spend hours obsessing over which teams are most interested in which players, but we don’t spend nearly as much time untying the order of operations side of things, and how that disorder shuffles the offseason deck. Unfortunately, this often overlooked part of the puzzle is about to have serious implications for the Red Sox. If they’re not careful, the order in which players fly off the shelf could completely upend their offseason plans.

Let’s dive deeper:

The unique issue crystalizes when you combine three inescapable facts:

1) Juan Soto is a generational free agent, and the Red Sox should be in on him.

2) The Red Sox already have an excess of young, valuable, cost-controlled, left-handed hitters on the roster, and all of them are four or more seasons away from free agency in Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Triston Casas, Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel, and Roman Anthony.

3) The Red Sox desperately need front line starting pitching at the top of their rotation.

Ideally, the Soto situation would resolve itself first. The Sox could make their push, go to their limit, and then pivot to pitching based on how Soto settled. This is how offseason narratives are built, both because it’s convenient, and because, from a national perspective, Soto’s case is the most interesting. But last night, reality smacked us all in the face, and things haven’t unfolded in very convenient fashion. The scenario where Soto signs first and the Sox have the most leverage on the pitching market is on the verge of vanishing.

So it raises the question: What if Soto signs last? And by last I mean after the top three pitchers on the market (Blake Snell, Max Fried and Corbin Burns) are off the market. This matters to the Red Sox more than anybody else, because their willingness, and maybe even need to move one of their valuable left-handed bats is further impacted by whether they get Soto as he obviously represents a possible cornerstone left-handed bat in the lineup for years to come.

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This in turn changes Craig Breslow’s collection of chips when conceiving chaotic commerce. If the Red Sox miss out on all three of the top free agent pitching targets and Soto is still sitting there, then they oddly might be even more compelled to sign him. They will have lost their leverage in terms of paying for pitching with dollars, and their play then becomes to pay Soto with the dollars and create additional leverage in the trade market with more expendable assets.

Soto’s presence on the roster obviously increases the ability to acquire top of the rotation pitching via trade without blowing a hole in the roster, but the order in which things transpire here really matters. This isn’t like other teams who could largely be done with major moves if they sign Soto. For the Sox, a Soto signing wouldn’t just be the biggest free agent contract in franchise history, it would also almost certainly be a prelude to a blockbuster pitching acquisition via trade. The overflow of lefties on the roster construction demands it.

So make no mistake: if the Red Sox whiff on both Fried and Burns, some of your favorite young lefties are likely gone. (And they might still be gone even if the Sox only sign one of the two remaining coveted arms and don’t get Soto.)

Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images

This is the developing drawback to the potential leverage the Red Sox might have had (and still could have depending on how things play out) this winter. In theory, the Sox are in a better position to acquire power pitching than just about anybody else in the sport if they truly want to engage in that pursuit. They have copious space on the payroll to purchase big names being miles below the luxury tax, and they have a bevy of blockbuster talent bubbling up from below in the minors.

But that beautiful leverage could all get turned on its head if the pitching on this winter’s free agent market goes early. The front office is approaching a critical moment (the greatest test this iteration has faced yet), and they need to negotiate the delicate balance of being in on Soto, the remaining starting pitchers, and the trade options all at the same time.

While it’s quite wonderful to be in on all three poker games at once, you don’t get to pick the order in which they resolve. Only the invisible, unpredictable hand of the market controls that. And unfortunately, if these things don’t resolve in the order we want, the leverage is gone, and the Sox could rapidly become the desperate damsel at the dance.

The bottom line is this: With Snell moving off the board first, the offseason climax could come early this winter. Very early! Within a couple of weeks, we might already know if the Sox are worthy of holiday celebration and good cheer, or if we’ve been left out in the freezing cold once again.

Your move, Mr. Breslow.