“I think it’s going to come down to the Red Sox and Mets,” Miller wrote. “From what I’m hearing, Big Papi [former Red Sox great David Ortiz] is playing a role in this and recruiting Soto hard. I heard [Soto] was very impressed with the Red Sox and the Red Sox are telling Soto that they’re going to bring in a couple of extra players in addition to him. … I think the Yankees, from what I hear, clearly they value him, but … I don’t think the Yankees will go $600 million. I’m hearing the Yankees will probably top out in the $550 million range.”

Miller believes that the Yankees will finish fourth in the Juan Soto sweepstakes. The Yankees have about $230 million in payroll committed to the 2025 roster, and the top luxury tax threshold is at $301 million. The Mets have much less committed with Steve Cohen also being the richest owner, while the Red Sox have just about $131 million committed to their roster in 2025. While the Red Sox are not known for spending as much as teams like the Yankees or Mets, they do spend at times and have a lot of payroll flexibility. Boston can sell Soto the vision of adding him and other pieces, while the Yankees are likely not making as many notable moves outside of Soto if they retain him.

How could the Yankees pivot if Juan Soto leaves?

It is not known for sure that the Yankees will be unable to keep Soto in the Bronx, but it appears that it will not be easy even if they do. Losing him to the division rival Red Sox would be a gut punch. The Yankees would likely have a budget of around $70 million in 2025 payroll to use if Soto does walk in free agency, and there are some players they could target to put together a contending team.